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Poll: GOP 2000 Presidential Candidate who "Confronts Religious Right" Wins Most GOP Support

53% of Republicans "More Likely" to Support Standing Up to Far Right in GOP; The GOP "Sister Souljah" Strategy Will Work

November 12, 1998

(WASHINGTON, DC) – In a poll conducted for Log Cabin Republicans by American Viewpoint, an Alexandria (VA)-based Republican polling firm, most Republicans -- including Republican men --said they would be more likely to support a Republican candidate for President in 2000 who confronts the religious right, rather than panders to them. Furthermore, the poll found that a third of African American voters would be more likely to support a GOP candidate that confronted the religious right, as well as a majority of voters aged 18 to 29. Also, most Independents would move into the GOP column, and majorities of those who voted for Bob Dole and Ross Perot for President in 1996.

In addition, the poll suggests that such a candidate would not spark a revolt among conservative voters. Among those identifying as "somewhat conservative," 46% would still be "more likely" to support the GOP candidate, as opposed to 31% who would be "less likely." The plurality is the same among those identifying as "very conservative" -- 46% would still be "more likely" to support the GOP, with 32% as "less likely," with "devout right" split 40%-38%.

"The data in this poll indicates that a bold move by one Republican candidate in 2000 would be a winning strategy for both the primaries and the general election," said Richard Tafel, executive director of Log Cabin Republicans. "A conservative Republican who confronts the religious right, articulates a strong Republican message and reaches out to the mainstream can both win the nomination, bring in swing voters and rip into the Democratic base."

"The Republican Party is at a turning point," Tafel said. "The religious right was trounced in this election and those Republicans who ran away from them won by a landslide. The Republican governors are pointing the way for the party -- voters who disapproved of the performance of the Republican Congress would be more likely to vote for a Republican who takes on the religious right. That shows which half of the GOP the voters want more from now on."

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The national survey of 1,000 Americans who voted on November 3, conducted for Log Cabin Republicans, found the following results:

Question: Would you be more likely or less likely to support a Republican candidate for President who confronted the religious right, rather than pandering to them?

REPUBLICANS

ALL VOTERS

53% MORE LIKELY

46% MORE LIKELY

28% LESS LIKELY

34% LESS LIKELY

INDEPENDENTS

DEMOCRAT MEN

49% MORE LIKELY

40% MORE LIKELY

29% LESS LIKELY

43% LESS LIKELY

GOP MEN

INDEPENDENT MEN

56% MORE LIKELY

53% MORE LIKELY

26% LESS LIKELY

28% LESS LIKELY

AFRICAN AMERICANS

VOTERS AGED 18-29

32% MORE LIKELY

51% MORE LIKELY

VOTED FOR BOB DOLE-96

VOTED FOR PEROT-96

52% MORE LIKELY

52% MORE LIKELY

26% LESS LIKELY

26% LESS LIKELY

VOTERS WHO DISAPPROVE OF GOP CONGRESS

47% MORE LIKELY

33% LESS LIKELY

"DEVOUT RIGHT" (Self-Identified)

40% MORE LIKELY

38% LESS LIKELY

[AMERICAN VIEWPOINT: Telephone survey conducted November 6-9, 1998 of 1,000 adults who voted on November 3, 1998. Margin of error: 3.2%]

Log Cabin Republicans is the nation's largest gay and lesbian Republican organization, with 50+ chapters nationwide, a full-time Washington office and a federal political action committee.